China’s economic engagement with Africa is entering a new phase, marked by record trade, shifting investment patterns and a sharp slowdown in large-scale development lending, according to new research by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center and the African Economic Research Consortium.
The research, published ahead of the 2026 African Development Bank Annual Meetings, shows that China-Africa relations are evolving from a model dominated by infrastructure finance toward a more differentiated approach shaped by trade policy, country-specific needs and changing global geopolitics.
In 2024, Africa’s trade with China reached a record $275 billion. The figure included $182 billion in imports from China and $93 billion in African exports to China. China was the leading export destination for 19 of Africa’s 54 countries.
- Key Highlights from report include:-
- Africa–China bilateral trade hit a record $275 billion in 2024- with China accounting for 28% of Africa’s total imports and 16% of exports, and ranking as the leading export destination for 19 out of 54 African countries.
- Africa’s exports to China remain 87–91% extractives: copper, bauxite, chromium, manganese and cobalt lead. Imports from China are 94–95% manufactured goods.
- China’s exports of low-carbon technologies to Africa totalled $9.8 billion in 2024, concentrated in power generation, energy storage and pollution control and in just a few markets: South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria.
- Chinese FDI rebounded strongly in 2023–24, but growth is driven by a small number of large projects; not a broad-based surge. North Africa captured 70% of recent greenfield investment.
- Net capital flows from Chinese lenders to Africa have turned negative -Africa is now repaying more than it receives. Projected debt service costs in 2026–30 risk crowding out spending on health, education and the energy transition.
- Chinese loan commitments have fallen below $5 billion annually since 2020, after exceeding World Bank lending levels during the 2010s. No new lending to coal, oil or gas has been recorded since 2019.
- Looking ahead, China extended zero-tariff treatment to all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties in 2026 but whether this shifts trade composition depends on Africa’s own industrial policy.
The report notes that African exports to China remain heavily concentrated in extractive industries. Key transition minerals imported by China from Africa include copper, bauxite and aluminum, chromium, manganese and cobalt. This reflects Africa’s continued importance in global supply chains for minerals used in energy transition technologies.
China’s own exports of low-carbon technologies to Africa also grew, reaching $9.8 billion in 2024. These exports were mainly concentrated in power generation, energy storage and pollution-control technologies, with markets such as South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria accounting for a large share.
On investment, the research shows that Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa rebounded in 2023 and 2024 after pandemic-era lows. However, the rebound was driven largely by a small number of major projects rather than a broad-based surge across the continent.
Between 2004 and 2024, Chinese firms announced $73.9 billion in greenfield foreign direct investment and $38.1 billion in mergers and acquisitions in Africa. Mergers and acquisitions dominated before the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, while greenfield investment has grown more significantly since then.
The sharpest shift is visible in development finance. Chinese loan commitments to Africa have fallen substantially since 2020, dropping below $5 billion annually. In 2023, eight African countries and two multilateral African borrowers received 13 loans totaling about $4.61 billion. In 2024, six loans worth $2.1 billion were recorded.
The largest share of recent lending went to the financial sector, followed by transport and energy. The report says Chinese lending, which in some years during the 2010s exceeded World Bank lending to Africa, is now broadly comparable to African Development Bank lending levels.
The research also finds that net capital flows from China to Africa have turned negative, meaning annual repayments now exceed new disbursements. While Africa’s average public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-gross national income ratio remains moderate, the shift signals a new financial reality for African borrowers.
Energy finance has also changed. No new Chinese lending to coal, oil or gas projects in Africa has been recorded since 2019. However, lending to non-hydro renewable energy, including solar, wind, nuclear and geothermal, remained limited at about $1.7 billion combined between 2000 and 2024.
The findings suggest that China-Africa economic relations are changing rather than being fully transformed. As African countries pursue different domestic priorities, China’s engagement is likely to become more country-specific. The report argues that a single continent-wide approach from China will increasingly produce varied outcomes across African economies.
Researchers say both African governments and China will need to deploy new tools to support more balanced economic outcomes. These could include local-currency and renminbi trade finance, prefeasibility facilities and targeted industrial policies.
China’s recent expansion of zero-tariff access to 53 African countries is one sign of this shift. Rather than relying mainly on large infrastructure loans, Beijing appears to be placing greater emphasis on trade access and policies tailored to local demand.
For African countries, the changing landscape presents both opportunities and risks. Record trade and rising investment in some sectors could support industrial development and energy transition goals. But continued dependence on raw mineral exports and falling net finance flows raise questions about whether the relationship can deliver broader economic diversification.
