Kenya’s telecommunications industry is entering a more mature phase, with subscriber growth slowing even as usage across key services continues to expand. This is according to the latest Q2 2025 to 2026 sector report released by the Communications Authority of Kenya.
The report shows that total mobile SIM subscriptions rose marginally to 78.4 million in Q2, up from 78.3 million in the previous quarter, reflecting a modest 0.1 per cent growth. The marginal increase suggests that the market is approaching saturation, shifting the focus from acquiring new users to driving deeper engagement and service adoption.
Despite the plateauing subscriber base, mobile money services continue to record strong growth. Subscriptions rose by 5.6 per cent to 51.36 million, underlining the central role of digital financial services in Kenya’s economy. Safaricommaintains a dominant position with approximately 89 per cent market share. However, competition is gradually intensifying, with Airtel Money Kenya increasing its market share from 10.3 per cent to 11.0 per cent over the quarter.
Voice services remain relevant, supported by steady traffic growth and increased cross-network communication. Airtel Kenya recorded 11.83 billion minutes of voice traffic in Q2, a 2.4 per cent increase from 11.55 billion minutes in Q1. Off network traffic grew by 8.4 per cent, indicating stronger interaction between users across different networks.
Pricing and perceived value continue to influence usage patterns. Airtel users recorded longer average call durations of approximately 2.7 minutes per call, compared to about 1.6 minutes on Safaricom. This disparity highlights the role of affordability in shaping how consumers access and utilise voice services.
Data services are increasingly at the centre of growth. Mobile data subscriptions rose by 2.9 per cent, while broadband connections grew by 9.3 per cent. Overall data consumption increased by 12 per cent during the quarter. This trend is closely linked to a 9.1 per cent rise in smartphone adoption, alongside a decline in feature phone usage, signalling a continued shift towards data driven digital ecosystems.
Meanwhile, SMS usage continues its downward trajectory. Airtel Kenya reported a 7.1 per cent decline in SMS volumes, compared to a broader market decline of 2.6 per cent. The drop reflects a structural transition to internet based messaging platforms rather than a reduction in overall communication.
While Safaricom remains the market leader across subscriptions and mobile money, its growth is slowing in some segments as competitors gain ground. Airtel Kenya, with a market share slightly above 30 per cent, is strengthening its position through pricing strategies and increased usage. Other players such as Telkom Kenya and Jamii Telecommunications continue to operate in niche segments, while new entrants like Starlink are beginning to reshape connectivity discussions, particularly in underserved and remote areas.
The regulator notes that growth in the sector is no longer defined by subscriber numbers alone. Instead, the competitive advantage is shifting towards how effectively operators expand digital financial services, increase data usage, and integrate into everyday consumer behaviour.
As the market evolves, the report points to mobile money adoption, rising data consumption, and increased cross network engagement as key indicators of the sector’s future direction. Operators that deliver value, improve accessibility, and build seamless digital ecosystems are likely to define the next phase of growth in Kenya’s telecommunications landscape.
