The second edition of the Guinea Economic Update offers an in-depth analysis of the country’s evolving macroeconomic position and examines how Guinea can increase domestic resource mobilization and management to achieve its development goals.
The report, “Domestic Resource Mobilization and Management for Inclusive and Sustainable Development,” presents a dual focus: an evaluation of macroeconomic developments and outlook, and an examination of Guinea’s potential to enhance and manage domestic revenues, particularly in light of the expected windfall from the Simandou iron ore project.
The first part of the report highlights Guinea’s ongoing and anticipated economic growth, with GDP growth reaching 5.7% in 2024, projected at 6.5% in 2025, and averaging 10% in 2026–27, driven by expanding mining activity. However, the report underscores that recent growth has not significantly reduced poverty, which remains high at 52%, due to limited job creation in the non-mining sectors.
“In recent years, Guinea has achieved robust growth, primarily fueled by the mining industry and agriculture. Yet, the key challenge remains in transforming growth into employment opportunities for Guineans,” said Marilyne Youbi, World Bank Group Economist and Lead Author of the report.
The report points to a widening fiscal deficit — 4.8% of GDP in 2024 and rising public debt, driven by infrastructure investment and still-limited revenue mobilization. Tax revenues remain low at 13.1% percent of GDP, significantly below regional targets, constraining the government’s ability to invest in essential services such as health, education, and infrastructure.
The second part of the report presents an analysis of Guinea’s domestic resource mobilization and management landscape. It argues that increasing and better managing public revenues, especially from the mining sector, is essential for fiscal sustainability, economic diversification, and improved social outcomes. The report calls for stronger tax policy enforcement consistent with the Tax and Mining Codes, and it highlights key reform areas including enhancing tax audit capabilities, improving the integrity of the taxpayer database, ensuring timely filing and payment of taxes, and deepening digitalization of revenue administration. It also calls for reforms to strengthen management of public expenditures and public investments programs.
“This report underscores the urgency of implementing reforms to make growth more inclusive and resilient,” said Issa Diaw, World Bank Group Country Manager for Guinea. “With the Simandou iron ore project poised to transform the economy, Guinea has a narrow window to ensure that the benefits of growth are widely shared.”
As Guinea enters a potentially transformative phase in its development, the report calls for a renewed policy focus on debt sustainability, macroeconomic stability, as well as investments in human and physical capital.
Download the Guinea Economic Update in English.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The World Bank Group.
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